[This is a preview of our full case study—download here: Measuring the Impact of Falling Gas Prices on Warehouse Clubs with Spending Data].
As inflation picked up beginning in March 2022, shoppers looked to bundle trips and find the lowest prices. As a result, the number of shoppers filling up their tanks at both Costco and BJ’s increased at the expense of other gas providers.
Among the total universe of shoppers that paid for gas in the data, roughly 5 to 6% of them shared their gas wallet with warehouse clubs (Costco and/or BJ’s) and non-warehouse gas providers (Exxon, Chevron, etc.). Since then, this figure increased ~100 bps every month YoY, reaching a new share high of ~7.5%, as more and more shoppers gravitated to the relatively cheaper gas prices at warehouse clubs.
This gain was more pronounced for Costco gas shoppers than BJ’s. The share of Costco-only gas shoppers increased just under ~150 bps YoY from March through June of this year, on average, after relatively stagnant growth since 2019. Download the full report to learn more about which retailer has more to lose if gas prices fall.