Earnest Analytics (FKA Earnest Research) continues to track the coronavirus impact on consumer spending across grocery, food delivery, travel, retail and e-commerce verticals using consumer transaction data. We’ve also included an airports and hotel foot traffic analysis built on our new mobile geolocation data, which will be available later this year.
Heat Maps by Vertical
We’ve updated our March 10 analysis and added Apparel & Department Store and Home verticals to our Heat Map. Across the verticals we’ve selected, aggregate spending looks similar to last week, growing 5.5% YoY. This is a slight uptick from the average weekly growth of 4% YoY since the beginning of the year.
- General Merchandise and Grocery sales growth continued to accelerate as people stocked up on supplies.
- Restaurant sales growth slowed down, decelerating 200bps into the most recent week.
- Grocery & Food Delivery growth rates remain strong, slightly accelerating into the most recent two weeks.
- Apparel & Department Stores have continued to decline to over 10% YoY in the most recent week.
- Travel has continued to get hit hard, now falling just under 25% YoY in the week ending March 11th.
- E-commerce hasn’t shown much variance yet.
Within Travel, all categories are exhibiting double-digit declines. Airlines, Cruise Lines, and OTAs are now falling ~25% to 50% YoY. Hotels (which includes the fast-growing Airbnb) have now joined their industry counterparts, declining 10% YoY from zero growth last week and high single-digit growth prior to that.
Geo: It’s Spreading
While stocking up behavior is a national phenomenon, it is slightly more pronounced in some states. Spending in the tri-state area (NY-NJ-CT) in the General Merchandise, Grocers, and Amazon & Paypal categories have grown ~20% YoY, Virginia and Washington at ~13%, California at ~10%, and Texas and Florida at ~8%.
Restaurant Sales: Delivery vs. In-Store
We’re closely monitoring the restaurant industry, particularly how its delivery and in-store channels perform during this time. Our data shows a slow down in growth for both in-store and delivery sales. As more and more people stay at home, we will be monitoring to see if the delivery channel changes course.
Across this highly unstable spending environment, different verticals appear poised to gain while others appear poised to lose. Some examples that we’ve noticed so far include:
- We’re seeing a pop in growth of funds flowing onto various brokerage platforms, particularly onto rumored IPO candidate Robinhood.
- Sporting Goods retailers, in aggregate, have accelerated into the most recent two weeks from the YoY declines in the beginning of this year, possibly from an increase in gun sales.
- Leisure (theme parks, event tickets, movie theaters, etc.) has begun to sharply decline, falling over 30% YoY in the most recent week.
Early Insights from Mobile Geolocation Data
We’re excited to share some early insights using foot traffic data. We’ve been working hard on bringing the mobile geolocation dataset to market since we acquired Alpha Hat earlier this year. Stay tuned for more details on our upcoming product launch.
While the major U.S. airports below started the year with flat to negative foot traffic growth, the declines began to accelerate in mid-February. Ultimately, LAX, JFK, SEA, and SFO all saw traffic fall sharply to at least -25% YoY through the week ending 3/7. Note that travel restrictions to/from China began in mid-January, potentially contributing to the early declines we see here.
Similarly, we can see foot traffic to hotels beginning to slow by state. While growth rates were more mixed across the country for the week ending March 1st, we can see it slow more broadly across the country for the week ending March 8th, with California, Washington, New York, and Nevada among the hardest hit.
Missed our first Coronavirus analysis? Read: Coronavirus is Changing How We Spend Money. Here’s How.
Appendix – list of merchants by vertical
Airlines: Alaska Airlines, Allegiant Air, American Airlines, Delta Airlines, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit Airlines, United Airlines.
Cruise Lines: Carnival Cruise Line, Cunard, Disney Cruise Line, HollandAmerica Line, Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, Princess Cruises, Regent Seven Seas, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Seabourn, Silversea Cruises.
Hotels: AC Hotels by Marriott, Airbnb, Aloft Hotels, AmericInn, Andaz, Baymont, Best Western, Cambria Hotels, Canopy, Clarion, Comfort Inn, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Courtyard, Crowne Plaza, Days Inn, Delta Hotels, DoubleTree, Econo Lodge, EDITION, Embassy Suites, Exhale, Fairfield by Marriott, Four Points, Gaylord Hotels, Grand Hyatt, Hampton, Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hilton Grand Vacations, Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Club Vacations, Holiday Inn Express, Holiday Inn Resort, Home2 Suites, Homewood Suites, Hotel Indigo, Howard Johnson, Hyatt, Hyatt Centric, Hyatt House, Hyatt Place, Hyatt Regency, InterContinental, JW Marriott, Kimpton, La Quinta, Le Meridien, Mainstay Suites, Marriott Hotels, Marriott Vacation Club, Microtel, Moxy Hotels, Park Hyatt, Quality Inn, Ramada, Renaissance Hotels, Residence Inn, Rodeway Inn, Sheraton, Sleep Inn, SpringHill Suites, St. Regis, Suburban Extended Stay, Super 8, The Luxury Collection, The Ritz-Carlton, TownePlace Suites, Travelodge, Tru, Trump Hotels, TRYP, W Hotels, Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, Westin, Wingate, Woodspring Suites, Wyndham, Wyndham Garden, Wyndham Grand.
OTAs: Classic Vacation, Egencia, Expedia, HomeAway, Hotels.com, Hotwire.com, Orbitz, Priceline.com, Travelocity
Rental Cars: Alamo Rent a Car, Avis, Budget, Budget Truck, Dollar Rent A Car, Enterprise, Enterprise CarShare, Hertz, Megabus, National Car Rental, Payless Car, Thrifty Car, Zipcar.
General Merchandise: 7-Eleven, 99 Cents Only Stores, BJ’s Ex Fuel, Casey’s General Store, Circle K, Corner Store, Costco Ex Gas, CVS, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Duane Reade, Family Dollar, Holiday Station Stores, Murphy USA, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Rite Aid, Sam’s Club, Target, Vudu, Walgreens, Walmart.
Grocery & Food Delivery: Amazon Fresh, Blue Apron, Caviar, Delivery.com, Dinnerly, DoorDash, FoodKick, Fresh Direct, Freshly, Green Chef, GrubHub and Seamless, HEB To You, Hello Fresh, Home Chef, Instacart Purchase, Peapod, Postmates, Purple Carrot, Sun Basket, UberEATS, Waitr, Walmart Online Grocery.
Grocers: Acme, Albertson’s, Aldi, Central Market, Cumberland Farms, Dillons, Fairway Market, Food 4 Less, Food Lion, Fred Meyer, Fry’s, Giant Carlisle, Giant Eagle, Giant Landover, Grocery Outlet, Hannaford, Harris Teeter, HEB, Hy-Vee, Ingles Markets, Jewel-Osco, Key Food, King Kullen, King Soopers, Kroger, Lidl, Lowes Foods, Lucky’s Market, Mariano’s, Market Basket, Meijer, Price Chopper Supermarkets, Publix, QFC, Raley’s, Ralphs, Safeway, Save Mart Supermarkets, Schnucks, Shaws, ShopRite, Smart & Final, Smith’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, Stater Bros. Markets, Stop & Shop, The Fresh Market, Tom Thumb Supermarkets, Trader Joe’s, Vons, Wegmans, Weis Markets, WinCo Foods, Winn-Dixie.
Restaurants: Applebee’s, Arby’s, BJ’s Restaurants, Blaze Pizza, Bojangles’, Bonefish Grill, Buffalo Wild Wings, Burger King, California Pizza Kitchen, Carls Jr, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Cheesecake Factory, Chick-fil-A, Chili’s, Chipotle, Chuck E. Cheese’s, Chuy’s, Cold Stone Creamery, Cracker Barrel, Culver’s, Dairy Queen, Del Taco, Denny’s, Domino’s Pizza, Dunkin’ Brands, Dutch Bros. Coffee, El Pollo Loco, Firehouse Subs, Five Guys, Freddy’s Frozen Custard & Steakburgers, Golden Corral, Habit Restaurants, Hardee’s, Hooters, IHOP, In-N-Out Burger, Jack in the Box, Jason’s Deli, Jersey Mike’s Subs, KFC, Krispy Kreme, Little Caesars, LongHorn Steakhouse, Maggiano’s Little Italy, Marco’s Pizza, McAlister’s Deli, McDonald’s, Mellow Mushroom, Miller’s Ale House, MISSION BBQ, Moe’s Southwest Grill, Noodles, Olive Garden, Outback Steakhouse, P.F. Chang’s, Panda Express, Panera Bread, Papa John’s, Papa Murphy’s, Peet’s Coffee, Pizza Hut, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Portillo’s, Potbelly, Pret A Manger, Qdoba, Raising Cane’s, Red Lobster, Red Robin, Ruby Tuesday, Ruth’s Chris, Schlotzsky’s, Shake Shack, Sonic Drive-In, Starbucks, Subway, sweetgreen, Taco Bell, Taco Cabana, Texas Roadhouse, TGI Fridays, Torchys, Twin Peaks, Waffle House, Wendy’s, Whataburger, Wingstop, Yard House, Zaxby’s, Zoe’s Kitchen.
Apparel & Department Stores: Abercrombie, Adidas, Aerie, Aeropostale, Aldo, American Eagle, Ann Taylor, Anthropologie, Aritzia, Asics, Asos, Athleta, Babies ”R” Us, Backcountry.com, Banana Republic, BCBG, Belk, Bergdorf Goodman, BHLDN, Bloomingdale’s, Boohoo, Boot Barn, Brooks Brothers, Buckle, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Burlington Stores, Carter’s, Cavender’s, Century 21, Champs, Charlotte Russe, Chico’s, Chubbies Shorts, Club Monaco, Coach, Cole Haan, Columbia Sportswear, Converse, Crazy8, Crocs, Dillard’s, Dressbarn, Duluth Trading Company, Eddie Bauer, Express, Fabletics, Fashion Nova, Finish Line, Foot Locker, Forever 21, Francesca’s, Free People, Gap, Gymboree, H&M, Hollister, J. Crew, J.C. Penney, J.Jill, Jos. A. Bank, Justice, Kate Spade, Kmart, Kohl’s, L.L. Bean, Lands’ End, Lane Bryant, Levi’s, Loft, Lord & Taylor, Lululemon, lulus, Macy’s, Madewell, Marshalls, Maurices, Men’s Wearhouse, Michael Kors, Neiman Marcus, NET-A-PORTER, New York & Company, Nike, Nordstrom Full Price, Nordstrom Off Price, North Face, Old Navy, Pacific Sunwear, Poshmark, Ralph Lauren, Revolve, Ross Stores, Rue21, Saks Fifth Avenue, Saks Off 5th, Sears, Shipt, Shoe Carnival, Sierra Trading Post, Skechers USA, Soma, Stein Mart, T.J. Maxx, Talbots, The Children’s Place, The RealReal, Tilly’s, Tommy Bahama, Torrid, Tory Burch, Trunk Club, Under Armour, Uniqlo, Urban Outfitters, Vans, White House Black Market, Zara USA, Zumiez.
Home: Aaron Brothers, Abacus Plumbing, Ace Hardware, Allied Building Products, Alterra, American Builders, American Frame, American Signature, Arhaus, Art Van, Artifact Uprising, Ashley Furniture, Aspen Valley Landscape, At Home, ATGStores.com, Atlantic Irrigation, Bed Bath & Beyond, Bedjet, Big Lots, Bissett Nursery, Blinds.com, Bob’s Discount Furniture, Brylane Home, Build.com, C&C Sand and Stone, Calloway’s Nursery, CanvasPop, Care.com, Casper, CB2, Central Pump and Supply, Comex, Crane & Canopy, Crate & Barrel, Cutting Edge, Decorist, Do it Best, Everything But The House, Fastenal, FilterEasy, Floor & Decor, Framebridge, GhostBed, Gordmans, Green Resource, Grove Collaborative, Harbor Freight Tools, Havertys, HD Supply, Helix Sleep, Home Decorators, Home Reserve, Homee, HomeGoods, HomeSense, Horchow, Houzz, KeyMe, Kirkland’s, Kirkwood Material Supply, La-Z-Boy (LZB), Landscape Express, LawnStarter, Leesa, Leslie’s Swimming Pool Supplies, Lowe’s, Mark and Graham, Marshall Stone, Mattress Firm, Menards, MightyNest, Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams, Northwest Exterminating, One Kings Lane, Orkin Pest Control, Personalization Mall, Pier 1 Imports, Plowz & Mowz, Pottery Barn, Purple, Raymour & Flanigan, Rejuvenation, Restoration Hardware, Rooms To Go, Rove Concepts, Ruggable, Rural King, Saatva, Sealy Cocoon, Sherwin Williams, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Sleep Number, Sleepy’s, Solar City, South Coast Supply, Southwood Valley Turf, Stanley Black & Decker, Stone Center, Sunrun, Sur La Table, Tempur-Pedic, Terrain, The Citizenry, The Container Store, The Home Depot, The RoomPlace, The Sill, Thecompanystore.com, Tractor Supply, TrueValue, TruGreen, Tuesday Morning, Tuft & Needle, Value City, Village Nurseries, Waterworks, Wayfair, West Elm, Williams-Sonoma, World Market, Zoro Tools.
Brokerage Platforms: Betterment, Coinbase, Fidelity Investments, Lexington Law, Raise.com, Robinhood, Stash, TDAmeritrade, Wealthfront.
Sporting Goods: Academy Sports & Outdoors, Bass Pro Shops, Big 5 Sporting Goods, Cabela’s, City Gear, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Field & Stream, Gander Outdoors, Golf Galaxy, Hibbett Sports, Modell’s Sporting Goods, Moosejaw, Mystery Tackle Box, Razor, REI Coop, Sportsman’s Warehouse, SquadLocker, Tackle Warehouse.
Leisure: Acme Technologies, Adventure Island, Alamo Drafthouse Cinema, AMC, AMF, Animal Kingdom, Aquatica, Atom Tickets, AXS, Bowlero, Bowlmor, BrunswickZone, Busch Gardens, Carowinds, Castaway Bay, Cedar Point, Century Theatre, Cinemark, Darien Lake, Dave & Buster’s, Discovery Cove, Disney’s Hollywood Studios, Dorney Park, Epcot, Eventbrite, Everfest, Fandango, Frontier City, Gilroy Gardens, Great America, Groupon, Hunt A Killer, Kings Dominion, Kings Island, Knotts Berry, Liftopia, Live Nation, LivingSocial, Lucky Strike, Magic Kingdom, Main Event, Michigans Adventure, Pinstripes, Punch Bowl Social, Rave, Reading International, Redbox, Regal Cinemas, Round One, San Diego Zoo, Schlitterbahn, SeatGeek, Seaworld, Sesame Place, Sinemia, Six Flags, Six Flags Hurricane Harbor Concord, StubHub, Ticketmaster, TickPick, Tinseltown USA, tixr, TodayTix, Topgolf, Universal Studios, Valleyfair, Viagogo, White Water Bay, Worlds of Fun.